Worst Trading Week in a Long Time

There's no good way to sugar coat it....I had a bad week trading stocks.

So, what factors led to my poor performance?

When I review my trades for the past week, I noticed that I was taking trades that I normally don't take.  Day trades, short trades, and bounce plays caught me over-trading and racking up small losses.  Some worked, some didn't, but they all didn't give me a very good edge.

There were also a couple swing plays that failed big for 4, 5 and 10%.

I had too much risk going into Friday, which I had noted for a volatile day....quad witch, end of the world, fiscal cliff drama, etc.

What did I learn?

Be more patient....wait for the best setups and confirmation

Don't hold too much risk overnight, especially into big "event" days.

Stick with the setups that work for me.  I was trying to learn some new trade setups....I should have paper traded until i felt confident and showed some success in what I was doing.

Watch the market for signs....after two big bounce days, signs were there for at least a rest or slight pullback.

The end of the year is almost here.  Its been tough to trade because of all the political drama that hangs over the markets.  I don't think that will change anytime soon.  Last year, I set some goals for the return that I wanted to achieve in my accounts.  Those goals were not met.....however, I was profitable, which is never bad.

Soon, I will be setting new goals for next year.  These goals will include profit targets, but may also include learning new tricks of the trade, limiting dumb mistakes, developing better habits, etc.

I'll come up with a list of these goals for this next year...

Merry Christmas to all!
~JP

12/16 Watch List

12/16 Watch List
Some ideas for next week.

Stock	Entry	Stop	1st Target	2nd Target	Risk Reward	Notes
STP	1.09	1	1.16	1.5	1-4:1	tricky trader (volatility). 4 month base.
STRI	2.68	2.49	2.88	3	1-1.4:1	thin. 20/50ma cross coming. riding 13ema
ECYT	9.8	9.6	10	10.3	1-2:1	thin. 20/50ma cross coming. volume increasing. riding 13ema
DRYS	1.85	1.75	2	2.06	1.5-2:1	good vol friday. maybe r/g move for entry.
JAG	0.8	0.77	0.83	0.95	1-5:1	thin. low price. inv h/s pattern.
NG	4.73	4.64	4.85	5	1.1-2:1	50ma above at 4.78.

Sutter Gold Mining News (SGMNF)

Sutter Gold Mining (SGMNF) has been an interest and holding of mine for the better part of a year.  My stock position is small relative to my total portfolio due to the risk factor of small start-up companies.  The company appeals to me for a few reasons...

1) Gold price increase potential
2) Small miner close to production (December 2012)
3) California's history of gold mining in the foothill region (Gold Rush)
4) I live fairly close to the mining location and have an interest in local businesses (without this factor, I probably would have already sold my total position).

On Wednesday, Sutter released more news about its production progress and stated that it is on schedule to meet the December production deadlines.  That's good news and I am eager to see the first production report as it could strongly influence the direction of the stock price.  The press release also had some pictures from the site that shows progress in construction of the mining sites and mill.  These pictures are great to see because it provides some perspective to investors for progress, size and scale of the operation.

To my delight, everything is looking very good.  While I have ZERO experience with mining (only what I see on TV), it appears that the construction of mine sites (mine openings and mill) and equipment is high quality.  There isn't any rinky-dink equipment, like you'd see on some of the gold mining TV shows.  This is a real operations.

It all looks good so far.  So, we sit tight and see how it all plays out.

Check out the recent press release...HERE
~JP

Took the Big Loss in FSLR

Well....that FSLR trade didn't go as planned.  In fact, it's tough to see how it could have been any worse. I buy on Wednesday in anticipation of a breakout to the upside.  Two days later, I'm selling at a roughly 15% loss as the price knifed through my stop loss.  There happened to be a downgrade issues in the morning with some concerns of warranty issues on the companies products.  Next thing you know....down 10% pretty quickly.  This price action is why I rarely trade solar stocks.  On Monday, you could very well see the price recover 5-10%.

So what did I learn about this trade?

The bad....
1) I should have waited for confirmation of a breakout to the upside instead of anticipating the breakout.
2) I had an opportunity to stop out earlier...as the price action and volume (along with news) during the morning was indicating a bigger move downward.
3) Lost ~15%

The good...
1) I had a plan and stuck with it.  This plan prevents me from the potential to loose more than anticipated.  Even though the trade lost ~15%, that equates to only 0.6% of my total account.
2) I took the appropriate position size (risk) considering the type of stock and volatility. I only took a partial position.
3) I'm still in the game and live to see a new day.

Even though there are some good takeaways in this story, the goal is still to make money.  I don't mind making some mistakes as long as others (along with myself) can learn from them.

~JP

10/4/2012 - New Short Term Positions

Its been a couple months since my last post.  The stock market in past month has been really choppy and a challenge to find stocks that could be longer term swing type trades.  Since August, I've been holding some gold (GDXJ) and commodity (GCC) ETFs.  I also still have some Sutter Gold Mining stock.

I took a stab at First Solar (FSLR) yesterday ($23.28) as it is coiling nicely after a good run up in August.  I usually don't like buying solar stocks because of their random volatility, but this is not a long term investment. I expect this to do one of two things; accelerate to the upside or fail dramatically to the downside. My upside target is around $30. My stop is set at $20...or just under.  The 50 dma is rising under the wedge and the 200 dma is falling from above.  I'd like to see the price move through the 200 dma. These two moving averages should cross soon, which should be bullish.

I decided to buy some Silver Miners ETF (SIL) today ($25.28) due to the bullish nature of the chart.  Although I already own some gold stocks, I think that Silver might outperform Gold in the short term.  My target is around $28.  I will hold a pretty loose stop at around $22.  There is a possibility that the price can dip and a "handle" will form on the "cup".  If that happens, I might add more if ~$22 holds with the expectation that it moves up through the ~$26 price resistance.

Current Portfolio

Purchased	Symbol	Price
4/13/2012	SGMNF	$   0.347
8/16/2012	GDXJ	$ 20.520
8/16/2012	GCC	$ 29.350
10/3/2012	FSLR	$ 23.280
10/4/2012	SIL	$ 25.280

The market looks decent if it can continue to move above September highs. However, it can turn on a dime. With regards to my 401k adjustments, I've decided to hold off on changes until early next year.  Protect your capital and stay in the game.  I wish everyone the best!

~JP

3 Stocks to watch tomorrow 8/23/12

$ARNA @ 8.86 - Target $9/$9.25
$MRO @ 27.8 - Target $28.25/$29
$XIN @ 3.05 - Target $3.20/$3.45

Trade your plan and use stops.
Good Luck!
~JP

401k updates coming

Back in February of this year, I made some adjustments to my 401k and went really conservative.  I evaluate my allocations twice per year.  The August/September time period is the second period.  I will be making some adjustments based on what I'm seeing in the world economy.  The markets are near their yearly highs.  I think this trend could continue.  Short term, I'm looking for a small pullback to buy. Long term, it may be a good time to get into specific sectors.

I will add a post with my changes when I make them.  Needless to say, my prior changes in Jan/Feb didn't help much as the market continued higher, dipped and went right up to the highs.

In my personal long-term account, I'm taking a stake in Gold Miner and Commodity ETFs.

More updates to come.

~JP