10/4/2012 - New Short Term Positions

Its been a couple months since my last post.  The stock market in past month has been really choppy and a challenge to find stocks that could be longer term swing type trades.  Since August, I've been holding some gold (GDXJ) and commodity (GCC) ETFs.  I also still have some Sutter Gold Mining stock.

I took a stab at First Solar (FSLR) yesterday ($23.28) as it is coiling nicely after a good run up in August.  I usually don't like buying solar stocks because of their random volatility, but this is not a long term investment. I expect this to do one of two things; accelerate to the upside or fail dramatically to the downside. My upside target is around $30. My stop is set at $20...or just under.  The 50 dma is rising under the wedge and the 200 dma is falling from above.  I'd like to see the price move through the 200 dma. These two moving averages should cross soon, which should be bullish.

I decided to buy some Silver Miners ETF (SIL) today ($25.28) due to the bullish nature of the chart.  Although I already own some gold stocks, I think that Silver might outperform Gold in the short term.  My target is around $28.  I will hold a pretty loose stop at around $22.  There is a possibility that the price can dip and a "handle" will form on the "cup".  If that happens, I might add more if ~$22 holds with the expectation that it moves up through the ~$26 price resistance.

Current Portfolio

Purchased	Symbol	Price
4/13/2012	SGMNF	$   0.347
8/16/2012	GDXJ	$ 20.520
8/16/2012	GCC	$ 29.350
10/3/2012	FSLR	$ 23.280
10/4/2012	SIL	$ 25.280

The market looks decent if it can continue to move above September highs. However, it can turn on a dime. With regards to my 401k adjustments, I've decided to hold off on changes until early next year.  Protect your capital and stay in the game.  I wish everyone the best!

~JP