There's no good way to sugar coat it....I had a bad week trading stocks.
So, what factors led to my poor performance?
When I review my trades for the past week, I noticed that I was taking trades that I normally don't take. Day trades, short trades, and bounce plays caught me over-trading and racking up small losses. Some worked, some didn't, but they all didn't give me a very good edge.
There were also a couple swing plays that failed big for 4, 5 and 10%.
I had too much risk going into Friday, which I had noted for a volatile day....quad witch, end of the world, fiscal cliff drama, etc.
What did I learn?
Be more patient....wait for the best setups and confirmation
Don't hold too much risk overnight, especially into big "event" days.
Stick with the setups that work for me. I was trying to learn some new trade setups....I should have paper traded until i felt confident and showed some success in what I was doing.
Watch the market for signs....after two big bounce days, signs were there for at least a rest or slight pullback.
The end of the year is almost here. Its been tough to trade because of all the political drama that hangs over the markets. I don't think that will change anytime soon. Last year, I set some goals for the return that I wanted to achieve in my accounts. Those goals were not met.....however, I was profitable, which is never bad.
Soon, I will be setting new goals for next year. These goals will include profit targets, but may also include learning new tricks of the trade, limiting dumb mistakes, developing better habits, etc.
I'll come up with a list of these goals for this next year...
Merry Christmas to all!
~JP
Sunday, December 23, 2012
Sunday, December 16, 2012
12/16 Watch List
12/16 Watch List
Some ideas for next week.
Some ideas for next week.
| Stock | Entry | Stop | 1st Target | 2nd Target | Risk Reward | Notes |
| STP | 1.09 | 1 | 1.16 | 1.5 | 1-4:1 | tricky trader (volatility). 4 month base. |
| STRI | 2.68 | 2.49 | 2.88 | 3 | 1-1.4:1 | thin. 20/50ma cross coming. riding 13ema |
| ECYT | 9.8 | 9.6 | 10 | 10.3 | 1-2:1 | thin. 20/50ma cross coming. volume increasing. riding 13ema |
| DRYS | 1.85 | 1.75 | 2 | 2.06 | 1.5-2:1 | good vol friday. maybe r/g move for entry. |
| JAG | 0.8 | 0.77 | 0.83 | 0.95 | 1-5:1 | thin. low price. inv h/s pattern. |
| NG | 4.73 | 4.64 | 4.85 | 5 | 1.1-2:1 | 50ma above at 4.78. |
Saturday, October 13, 2012
Sutter Gold Mining News (SGMNF)
Sutter Gold Mining (SGMNF) has been an interest and holding of mine for the better part of a year. My stock position is small relative to my total portfolio due to the risk factor of small start-up companies. The company appeals to me for a few reasons...
1) Gold price increase potential
2) Small miner close to production (December 2012)
3) California's history of gold mining in the foothill region (Gold Rush)
4) I live fairly close to the mining location and have an interest in local businesses (without this factor, I probably would have already sold my total position).
On Wednesday, Sutter released more news about its production progress and stated that it is on schedule to meet the December production deadlines. That's good news and I am eager to see the first production report as it could strongly influence the direction of the stock price. The press release also had some pictures from the site that shows progress in construction of the mining sites and mill. These pictures are great to see because it provides some perspective to investors for progress, size and scale of the operation.
To my delight, everything is looking very good. While I have ZERO experience with mining (only what I see on TV), it appears that the construction of mine sites (mine openings and mill) and equipment is high quality. There isn't any rinky-dink equipment, like you'd see on some of the gold mining TV shows. This is a real operations.
It all looks good so far. So, we sit tight and see how it all plays out.
Check out the recent press release...HERE
~JP
1) Gold price increase potential
2) Small miner close to production (December 2012)
3) California's history of gold mining in the foothill region (Gold Rush)
4) I live fairly close to the mining location and have an interest in local businesses (without this factor, I probably would have already sold my total position).
On Wednesday, Sutter released more news about its production progress and stated that it is on schedule to meet the December production deadlines. That's good news and I am eager to see the first production report as it could strongly influence the direction of the stock price. The press release also had some pictures from the site that shows progress in construction of the mining sites and mill. These pictures are great to see because it provides some perspective to investors for progress, size and scale of the operation.
To my delight, everything is looking very good. While I have ZERO experience with mining (only what I see on TV), it appears that the construction of mine sites (mine openings and mill) and equipment is high quality. There isn't any rinky-dink equipment, like you'd see on some of the gold mining TV shows. This is a real operations.
It all looks good so far. So, we sit tight and see how it all plays out.
Check out the recent press release...HERE
~JP
Friday, October 5, 2012
Took the Big Loss in FSLR
Well....that FSLR trade didn't go as planned. In fact, it's tough to see how it could have been any worse. I buy on Wednesday in anticipation of a breakout to the upside. Two days later, I'm selling at a roughly 15% loss as the price knifed through my stop loss. There happened to be a downgrade issues in the morning with some concerns of warranty issues on the companies products. Next thing you know....down 10% pretty quickly. This price action is why I rarely trade solar stocks. On Monday, you could very well see the price recover 5-10%.
So what did I learn about this trade?
The bad....
1) I should have waited for confirmation of a breakout to the upside instead of anticipating the breakout.
2) I had an opportunity to stop out earlier...as the price action and volume (along with news) during the morning was indicating a bigger move downward.
3) Lost ~15%
The good...
1) I had a plan and stuck with it. This plan prevents me from the potential to loose more than anticipated. Even though the trade lost ~15%, that equates to only 0.6% of my total account.
2) I took the appropriate position size (risk) considering the type of stock and volatility. I only took a partial position.
3) I'm still in the game and live to see a new day.
Even though there are some good takeaways in this story, the goal is still to make money. I don't mind making some mistakes as long as others (along with myself) can learn from them.
~JP
So what did I learn about this trade?
The bad....
1) I should have waited for confirmation of a breakout to the upside instead of anticipating the breakout.
2) I had an opportunity to stop out earlier...as the price action and volume (along with news) during the morning was indicating a bigger move downward.
3) Lost ~15%
The good...
1) I had a plan and stuck with it. This plan prevents me from the potential to loose more than anticipated. Even though the trade lost ~15%, that equates to only 0.6% of my total account.
2) I took the appropriate position size (risk) considering the type of stock and volatility. I only took a partial position.
3) I'm still in the game and live to see a new day.
Even though there are some good takeaways in this story, the goal is still to make money. I don't mind making some mistakes as long as others (along with myself) can learn from them.
~JP
Thursday, October 4, 2012
10/4/2012 - New Short Term Positions
Its been a couple months since my last post. The stock market in past month has been really choppy and a challenge to find stocks that could be longer term swing type trades. Since August, I've been holding some gold (GDXJ) and commodity (GCC) ETFs. I also still have some Sutter Gold Mining stock.
I took a stab at First Solar (FSLR) yesterday ($23.28) as it is coiling nicely after a good run up in August. I usually don't like buying solar stocks because of their random volatility, but this is not a long term investment. I expect this to do one of two things; accelerate to the upside or fail dramatically to the downside. My upside target is around $30. My stop is set at $20...or just under. The 50 dma is rising under the wedge and the 200 dma is falling from above. I'd like to see the price move through the 200 dma. These two moving averages should cross soon, which should be bullish.
Current Portfolio
The market looks decent if it can continue to move above September highs. However, it can turn on a dime. With regards to my 401k adjustments, I've decided to hold off on changes until early next year. Protect your capital and stay in the game. I wish everyone the best!
~JP
I took a stab at First Solar (FSLR) yesterday ($23.28) as it is coiling nicely after a good run up in August. I usually don't like buying solar stocks because of their random volatility, but this is not a long term investment. I expect this to do one of two things; accelerate to the upside or fail dramatically to the downside. My upside target is around $30. My stop is set at $20...or just under. The 50 dma is rising under the wedge and the 200 dma is falling from above. I'd like to see the price move through the 200 dma. These two moving averages should cross soon, which should be bullish.
I decided to buy some Silver Miners ETF (SIL) today ($25.28) due to the bullish nature of the chart. Although I already own some gold stocks, I think that Silver might outperform Gold in the short term. My target is around $28. I will hold a pretty loose stop at around $22. There is a possibility that the price can dip and a "handle" will form on the "cup". If that happens, I might add more if ~$22 holds with the expectation that it moves up through the ~$26 price resistance.
Current Portfolio
| Purchased | Symbol | Price |
| 4/13/2012 | SGMNF | $ 0.347 |
| 8/16/2012 | GDXJ | $ 20.520 |
| 8/16/2012 | GCC | $ 29.350 |
| 10/3/2012 | FSLR | $ 23.280 |
| 10/4/2012 | SIL | $ 25.280 |
The market looks decent if it can continue to move above September highs. However, it can turn on a dime. With regards to my 401k adjustments, I've decided to hold off on changes until early next year. Protect your capital and stay in the game. I wish everyone the best!
~JP
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
3 Stocks to watch tomorrow 8/23/12
$ARNA @ 8.86 - Target $9/$9.25
$MRO @ 27.8 - Target $28.25/$29
$XIN @ 3.05 - Target $3.20/$3.45
Trade your plan and use stops.
Good Luck!
~JP
$MRO @ 27.8 - Target $28.25/$29
$XIN @ 3.05 - Target $3.20/$3.45
Trade your plan and use stops.
Good Luck!
~JP
Sunday, August 19, 2012
401k updates coming
Back in February of this year, I made some adjustments to my 401k and went really conservative. I evaluate my allocations twice per year. The August/September time period is the second period. I will be making some adjustments based on what I'm seeing in the world economy. The markets are near their yearly highs. I think this trend could continue. Short term, I'm looking for a small pullback to buy. Long term, it may be a good time to get into specific sectors.
I will add a post with my changes when I make them. Needless to say, my prior changes in Jan/Feb didn't help much as the market continued higher, dipped and went right up to the highs.
In my personal long-term account, I'm taking a stake in Gold Miner and Commodity ETFs.
More updates to come.
~JP
I will add a post with my changes when I make them. Needless to say, my prior changes in Jan/Feb didn't help much as the market continued higher, dipped and went right up to the highs.
In my personal long-term account, I'm taking a stake in Gold Miner and Commodity ETFs.
More updates to come.
~JP
Saturday, July 28, 2012
Trade Update and Advise
The market has been moving through a choppy zone since June. Although we've seen higher highs and higher lows since the beginning of June, the swings have been fairly consistent and reasonably predictable. That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see the market begins to accelerate in either direction.
Due to the market conditions, I've been keeping any positions light and taking profits and losses quicker. I do, however, want to reflect on an example of poor trade management by myself that led to, not just a bigger loss than normal, but a mindset that limited returns on future trades. My issue?....I got too involved in the "story" of a stock vs. trade my plan (VRNG on 7/26, buy at 4.22 sold at 3.76). Instead of taking a 2.5% loss, I took a 10% loss. This caused me to second guess a couple of my trades the following day. GE, ARIA, and EGHT were buys that I sold for tiny losses or tiny gains because of my worry about the prior day performance. All three stocks accelerated higher shortly after I sold.
It's difficult to put that poor trade behind, but it is critical to do so. Learn from the mistake and come back stronger from it.
Trade Update:
I'm keeping my eyes open for more longer term opportunities for my portfolio. I will update the blog as I enter anything new. I am watching WFC as it appears to be hitting resistance. If it breaks, the move up could be decent.
I sold my position in LQMT as my stop at .27 got taken out. I took the loss (from .31) on the small position.
I still have my position in SGMNF (SGM.V). The pattern continues to look promising. I''m looking for a move above .41 with some good relative volume.
Follow the trend. Protect your capital. Trust in your plan.
~JP
Tuesday, June 26, 2012
Sutter Gold Mining and LiquidMetal Charts
Sutter Gold Mining (SGMNF.PK or SGM.V) is forming an ascending triangle, which shows upper resistance at around 41 cents. I would love to see this patter play out to the upside and test the .50 level fairly soon. Volume has been increasing over the past few days.
See SGM.V Chart
LiquidMetal (LQMT) is forming a similar pattern, with near term resistance at .37. A breakout to the upside and could test the .60 level.
See LQMT Chart
Stay light and nimble in choppy or down-trending markets.
~JP
See SGM.V Chart
LiquidMetal (LQMT) is forming a similar pattern, with near term resistance at .37. A breakout to the upside and could test the .60 level.
See LQMT Chart
Stay light and nimble in choppy or down-trending markets.
~JP
Wednesday, June 20, 2012
Sutter Gold Mining Inc Progress
Sutter Gold Mining (SGMNF.PK) released a status report today, indicating that progress is being made to get their mine online. By all indications, the company is on schedule for gold production in the next 6-12 months....hopefully sooner.
That said, I continue to hold my small position from 0.22.
LiquidMetal (LQMT) saw no follow through today. Because it established a higher low, at around .25, I will continue to hold as it appears an uptrend has formed. My stop will be just below .25.
Again, these little stocks are very volatile. I rarely "invest" in these, but on occasion I find one or two that have stories or news that could create momentum. I wouldn't be surprised to gain 20-50% or loose 10-20%. When risk increases to this degree, its important to maintain proper position size to match the risk. In these cases, I take only a quarter of a full position. A full position for me is one tenth of my total portfolio.
~JP
That said, I continue to hold my small position from 0.22.
LiquidMetal (LQMT) saw no follow through today. Because it established a higher low, at around .25, I will continue to hold as it appears an uptrend has formed. My stop will be just below .25.
Again, these little stocks are very volatile. I rarely "invest" in these, but on occasion I find one or two that have stories or news that could create momentum. I wouldn't be surprised to gain 20-50% or loose 10-20%. When risk increases to this degree, its important to maintain proper position size to match the risk. In these cases, I take only a quarter of a full position. A full position for me is one tenth of my total portfolio.
~JP
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
LiquidMetal Extends Agreement with Apple
LiquidMetal Technologies Inc (LQMT), which I wrote about in my last post, announced that it has extended its agreement with Apple Inc to license intellectual property through Feb 5th 2012.
See the Form 8-K Filing
I have a small position that I initiated a couple weeks back. I'm buying into the story in the hopes that news like this can create some momentum for the stock. The stock had a great day today, closing up 24% on good volume, near the highs of the day. I'll sit back and see if there is follow through tomorrow.
Best of luck to everyone.
~JP
See the Form 8-K Filing
I have a small position that I initiated a couple weeks back. I'm buying into the story in the hopes that news like this can create some momentum for the stock. The stock had a great day today, closing up 24% on good volume, near the highs of the day. I'll sit back and see if there is follow through tomorrow.
Best of luck to everyone.
~JP
Saturday, June 16, 2012
Its Been a While....
Its been a little over a month since my last post, mostly because the market was entering into a down trend. When the market starts trending down like it did in early-mid May, I will become much more selective and conservative in my investing approach. While there are opportunities, the risk/reward tends to be out of favor. Don't chase breakouts, use tight stops, pick only the best setups. I do my best to protect capital.
Some big stocks that are typically dormant have been moving well. See Wal-Mart and AT&T's Charts. I'm not sure what to make of this. Is it a flight to safety? Dividends?
DNKN, which I sold for a small gain as it hit my 50 day ma stop price, ended up hitting my $35 target on Friday.
I'm still holding Sutter Gold Mining, inc (SGMNF) and took a new starter position in Liquidmetal Technologies (LQMT) @ 0.31. These stocks are highly volatile and can move 10% in a day. LQMT will be a longer term hold for me, with a target of around .60 or roughly 100% gain. I like the story that I'm hearing through the press releases. There was speculation of a deal with Apple, which the CEO confirmed in an investor video message. This seemed to setup an opportunity for them to offer shares to investors....which may impact the price short term. My stop price will be around the recent low and 200 day ma of .21. I'm giving up over 30% to gain a potential 100%....we'll see what happens. Either way, I have a very small position.
The activity in Greece this weekend should have an impact on the markets next week. I'll be keeping my eye on what happens there and in the US in the form of additional stimulus.
I continue to remain cautious for now.
Stay out of trouble and enjoy the summer.
~JP
Some big stocks that are typically dormant have been moving well. See Wal-Mart and AT&T's Charts. I'm not sure what to make of this. Is it a flight to safety? Dividends?
DNKN, which I sold for a small gain as it hit my 50 day ma stop price, ended up hitting my $35 target on Friday.
I'm still holding Sutter Gold Mining, inc (SGMNF) and took a new starter position in Liquidmetal Technologies (LQMT) @ 0.31. These stocks are highly volatile and can move 10% in a day. LQMT will be a longer term hold for me, with a target of around .60 or roughly 100% gain. I like the story that I'm hearing through the press releases. There was speculation of a deal with Apple, which the CEO confirmed in an investor video message. This seemed to setup an opportunity for them to offer shares to investors....which may impact the price short term. My stop price will be around the recent low and 200 day ma of .21. I'm giving up over 30% to gain a potential 100%....we'll see what happens. Either way, I have a very small position.
The activity in Greece this weekend should have an impact on the markets next week. I'll be keeping my eye on what happens there and in the US in the form of additional stimulus.
I continue to remain cautious for now.
Stay out of trouble and enjoy the summer.
~JP
Tuesday, May 8, 2012
Choppy Market
This market can be very frustrating due to the choppiness. The frustration can throw you off your game plan. That's what happened to me today as I stopped out of NEM at $45.20. That was planned....but, I also decided to sell my DNKN position at about $32 and lock in the $2 profit. My plan with DNKN was to stop out at the 50 dma, which it didn't quite reach, or achieve a $35 target. The stock turned around today and closed relatively strong, nearly $1 above my sell point. It looks like the good setup for continuation is in play.
Maybe I made a good move, and maybe I gave up some greater profits. That's how it goes sometimes. Sometimes you need to block out all the noise and stick with your plan.
At least you won't go broke taking profits.
~JP
Sunday, May 6, 2012
Position Updates HPQ NEM DNKN
Here's a quick update on a couple positions.
I took a position in HPQ at $25.16 only to get stopped out at the low of the day ($24.88) a few moments later. I kept a tight stop due to market weakness. I initially was kicking myself for the tight stop, but it turns out that may have been a good short term decision. We'll see how it plays out, but I'm out of this position for now.
I moved my stop on NEM down to the recent lows at $45.22 primarily because I have a smaller position and I wanted to give it a bit more room to work. We'll see if the low holds. If not, I will sell.
DNKN - will stop out at the 50 dma.
It should be an interesting week. Protect your capital
~JP
I took a position in HPQ at $25.16 only to get stopped out at the low of the day ($24.88) a few moments later. I kept a tight stop due to market weakness. I initially was kicking myself for the tight stop, but it turns out that may have been a good short term decision. We'll see how it plays out, but I'm out of this position for now.
I moved my stop on NEM down to the recent lows at $45.22 primarily because I have a smaller position and I wanted to give it a bit more room to work. We'll see if the low holds. If not, I will sell.
DNKN - will stop out at the 50 dma.
It should be an interesting week. Protect your capital
~JP
Monday, April 30, 2012
Watching HPQ
HPQ is on my watch list with a buy price of $25.15. I would place a stop at the 50 day MA, or about $24.50. My first target is the 200 day MA, around $26.50.
The stock has been on a multi-year down trend, but the near term is showing signs of a bounce. There is a gap that could be filled at $28.50. It will be a while before we see that fill, but with patience it could happen. My plan is outlined above. Lets see what happens.
Current Holdings...
DNKN - Looking alright. I'd like to see it hold/consolidate and $32 and move up from there as the moving averages advance.
NEM - held the $47.50 area on the daily close. I'm keeping an eye on the intraday price, but I'm more concerned with how the stock looks on a daily basis, since my plan is a longer term hold.
SGMNF - Long term hold here...but, I'm keeping my eye on the 13 ema and 20 ma for trend.
Feel free to leave a comment.
~JP
The stock has been on a multi-year down trend, but the near term is showing signs of a bounce. There is a gap that could be filled at $28.50. It will be a while before we see that fill, but with patience it could happen. My plan is outlined above. Lets see what happens.
DNKN - Looking alright. I'd like to see it hold/consolidate and $32 and move up from there as the moving averages advance.
NEM - held the $47.50 area on the daily close. I'm keeping an eye on the intraday price, but I'm more concerned with how the stock looks on a daily basis, since my plan is a longer term hold.
SGMNF - Long term hold here...but, I'm keeping my eye on the 13 ema and 20 ma for trend.
Feel free to leave a comment.
~JP
Friday, April 27, 2012
New Position NEM
Hello!
I took a position in NEM at $48.13 this morning. As mentioned in yesterday's blog, I had an entry targeted for around $48.50. The stock gaped up in the morning above this price and immediately filled the gap. the stock spent most of the day around my buy price but closed below it. The earnings released by the company this morning were decent to good. I'd like to see the price hold above the $47.45 area in order for me to stay in the position. I like the potential of the company, particularly if the price of gold starts to move back up. The stock price has lagged the price of gold and should start to catch up if gold rises.
DNKN moved up on earnings, but the two daily candles were not necessarily encouraging. Since I've raised my stop above my entry price, I should be able to realize a gain if I get stopped out. It looks like I will need to continue to be patient with this one before I exit. We'll see what hits first, $35 or the 50 day MA (today = $30.51).
Remember to follow your own trading plan.
Have a good weekend!
~JP
I took a position in NEM at $48.13 this morning. As mentioned in yesterday's blog, I had an entry targeted for around $48.50. The stock gaped up in the morning above this price and immediately filled the gap. the stock spent most of the day around my buy price but closed below it. The earnings released by the company this morning were decent to good. I'd like to see the price hold above the $47.45 area in order for me to stay in the position. I like the potential of the company, particularly if the price of gold starts to move back up. The stock price has lagged the price of gold and should start to catch up if gold rises.
DNKN moved up on earnings, but the two daily candles were not necessarily encouraging. Since I've raised my stop above my entry price, I should be able to realize a gain if I get stopped out. It looks like I will need to continue to be patient with this one before I exit. We'll see what hits first, $35 or the 50 day MA (today = $30.51).
Remember to follow your own trading plan.
Have a good weekend!
~JP
Thursday, April 26, 2012
Holding DNKN SGMNF, Watching NEM
Greetings!
DNKN had earnings this morning and I was holding a small position from around $30. I haven't read their release or heard the conference call, but it seems as though they have a lot of positive news going for them. The stock gaped up to over $33 and spent the day around the $32 range, closing at all time highs. I still have a target of $35, but I think that momentum can carry this higher. If I see $35, I will most likely be selling. My stop has moved up to the 50 day MA, around $30.40.
SGMNF - I'm still holding Sutter Gold Mine from the 22 cent area. The long term story still sounds good.
NEM - I'm keeping my eye on Newmont Mining as I think the stock is seriously oversold. They released earnings today. I will read through the release and make a decision to buy if the fundamentals are still good. My entry would be around $48.50. Stop would be below the recent lows @ 45.22. If it can get past $50, my first target, I think $55-57 might hit.
Here's a video of my first guitar video....
~JP
DNKN had earnings this morning and I was holding a small position from around $30. I haven't read their release or heard the conference call, but it seems as though they have a lot of positive news going for them. The stock gaped up to over $33 and spent the day around the $32 range, closing at all time highs. I still have a target of $35, but I think that momentum can carry this higher. If I see $35, I will most likely be selling. My stop has moved up to the 50 day MA, around $30.40.
NEM - I'm keeping my eye on Newmont Mining as I think the stock is seriously oversold. They released earnings today. I will read through the release and make a decision to buy if the fundamentals are still good. My entry would be around $48.50. Stop would be below the recent lows @ 45.22. If it can get past $50, my first target, I think $55-57 might hit.
Here's a video of my first guitar video....
Thursday, April 12, 2012
Nice Moves for DNKN and SGMNF. Watching WM
DNKN met my $32 target today, allowing me to take a profit on 1/2 of my position. I decided to hold onto 1/2 a position a while longer and ride the 50 day ma up. I'll use that a stop. The company announced that earnings will be released April 26th. Hopefully, I can hold to earnings and may make a decision to hold through them...we'll see how it goes.
SGMNF has been rising slowly but surly. I'd like to see volume pick up a bit along with the price. This is a longer term hold, so I'll be happy as long as it holds above 30 cents.
I'm watching these two stocks...
WM - I've owned this one in the past. It looks like its up against resistance at $35.39. A strong break above this level could send it to $37 in a short period of time. I'd put a stop just under the 50 day ma @ $34.75. The long-term target would be $40.
Stay patient and have a good weekend!
~JP
SGMNF has been rising slowly but surly. I'd like to see volume pick up a bit along with the price. This is a longer term hold, so I'll be happy as long as it holds above 30 cents.
I'm watching these two stocks...
WM - I've owned this one in the past. It looks like its up against resistance at $35.39. A strong break above this level could send it to $37 in a short period of time. I'd put a stop just under the 50 day ma @ $34.75. The long-term target would be $40.
~JP
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Tough Week So Far
It's only Tuesday and the market down-turn has stopped me out of four short-term positions (CBAK, ARNA, SCLN, CRIS). It never feels good to be on a loosing streak, but it happens to the best of traders. The takeaway for me is that I need to keep an eye on the bigger picture and understand where the market is heading before entering the trades. I use the 13 ema to gauge the trend of the market. If the market is trending above it, I can be more aggressive with my position sizes, entries and exits. If the market is trending below, I need to take smaller positions, keep stops tighter and profit targets smaller.
I expect the market to chop along for a few weeks, making trading challenging...and earnings season may not help. Patience will be key. Make sure to only take the best setups.
DNKN - I nearly stopped out of my position in DNKN. It held the 50 day ma into the close, but I'll be keeping a close eye on it.
SGMNF - This stock held its breakout after moving from 20 to 50 cents. The volume has been relatively low, but the price has started moving up again, which a close at around 35 cents today. There may be some resistance here, but with some increased volume, we might make another run at 50 cents or higher.
SNPK - This is a pump n dump stock that I got into at around 57 cents after I got an email promoting it. There has been a lot of news released by the company and the price has increased over the course of the last month. I sold yesterday for $1.20 or over 100%. Please note, that I had a very small position with this stock and consider this gain more luck than skill. I typically won't play any pump and dump stocks, but I thought that I got in early enough to make some profit on it. Anyway, it worked out for me.
~JP
I expect the market to chop along for a few weeks, making trading challenging...and earnings season may not help. Patience will be key. Make sure to only take the best setups.
DNKN - I nearly stopped out of my position in DNKN. It held the 50 day ma into the close, but I'll be keeping a close eye on it.
SGMNF - This stock held its breakout after moving from 20 to 50 cents. The volume has been relatively low, but the price has started moving up again, which a close at around 35 cents today. There may be some resistance here, but with some increased volume, we might make another run at 50 cents or higher.
SNPK - This is a pump n dump stock that I got into at around 57 cents after I got an email promoting it. There has been a lot of news released by the company and the price has increased over the course of the last month. I sold yesterday for $1.20 or over 100%. Please note, that I had a very small position with this stock and consider this gain more luck than skill. I typically won't play any pump and dump stocks, but I thought that I got in early enough to make some profit on it. Anyway, it worked out for me.
~JP
Saturday, March 31, 2012
New Position - DNKN
Happy weekend everyone!
I took a new position in Dunkin Brands (DNKN) at around $30.04 just before the close on Friday. Not just because I like donuts, but because of the strength in the last couple days after news of a stock sale by private investors. The positive action tells me there is good demand for the stock. This is a relatively new stock and there is an expectation that earnings will grow significantly over the next year.
Technically, the stock is in a good position. It bounce off its 50 day moving average twice over the past two days and rebounded nicely. $30 is historical support, which it broke out of in early March. There is a nice uptrend in place from mid December. I'm looking for the stock to hold the 50 day ma and uptrend line as support. A breach of the 50 day ma will stop me out.
My initial target is around $32. If it breaks that level, $34-35 could be realized shortly after.
Enjoy the weekend!
~JP
I took a new position in Dunkin Brands (DNKN) at around $30.04 just before the close on Friday. Not just because I like donuts, but because of the strength in the last couple days after news of a stock sale by private investors. The positive action tells me there is good demand for the stock. This is a relatively new stock and there is an expectation that earnings will grow significantly over the next year.
Technically, the stock is in a good position. It bounce off its 50 day moving average twice over the past two days and rebounded nicely. $30 is historical support, which it broke out of in early March. There is a nice uptrend in place from mid December. I'm looking for the stock to hold the 50 day ma and uptrend line as support. A breach of the 50 day ma will stop me out.
My initial target is around $32. If it breaks that level, $34-35 could be realized shortly after.
Enjoy the weekend!
~JP
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Speculative Play Update - Sutter Gold Mining (SGMNF.PK)
Sutter Gold Mining had a significant day today. The price spiked up as high as 50 cents per share at one point and finished over 40 cents for around a 30% gain. The volume might have been the highest in history (or close to it). Hopefully, the volume can remain strong. Expect some consolidation...maybe around the 50 cent area before a continues move higher. However, it is very possible for this stock to continue the momentum upwards or sell off to support levels. First support appears to be 30 cents.
Volatility is very high with this one. Today the price went from 30 cents to 50, back down to 33 or so, then back up to 40 cents. If you're in, be prepared for some big swings. Plus, the bid/ask spread is often pretty wide. I'm prepared to sit on this stock for a while....hopefully, with a profit in the end.
We had about a week of rain last week. Not sure how that will impact the company's progress.
Anyhow, hope everyone is doing well with their investments. I'm not seeing as many good stock setups out there....stay patient and protect your capital.
~JP
Volatility is very high with this one. Today the price went from 30 cents to 50, back down to 33 or so, then back up to 40 cents. If you're in, be prepared for some big swings. Plus, the bid/ask spread is often pretty wide. I'm prepared to sit on this stock for a while....hopefully, with a profit in the end.
We had about a week of rain last week. Not sure how that will impact the company's progress.
Anyhow, hope everyone is doing well with their investments. I'm not seeing as many good stock setups out there....stay patient and protect your capital.
~JP
Monday, March 19, 2012
Speculative Play - Sutter Gold Mining (SGMNF.PK)
As mentioned a couple posts ago, Sutter Gold Mine (SGMNF) had some good news last week about their gold drilling results. Today, the stock had a good run, up about 20% on some decent relative volume. Keep an eye on this over the next few days. The stock could shoot up or fall back to support...or lower. I'd like to see increasing volume to support an increase in price. I still have my shares and will be holding longer term (3-9 months for now) until I see a change in the company's prospects.
Good luck!
JP
Good luck!
JP
Sunday, March 18, 2012
Watch List for Week of 3/18/2012
Here are a few stocks I'm watching this week...
HPQ - This stock is coming off oversold levels. My entry is around 24.60. I think it can run up to the 20 MA. I would have a tight stop on this one cause it could be a good short below 23.90 too.
SMSI -this one still looks good with a break over Friday's highs of 2.76. Stop would be a close below Friday's close of 2.65. Target is around 3.25.
XRX - Buy over 8.5 with a stop below 20 ma at 8.3. First target around 9-9.19.
My Guitar Studies: Much like my continuing education in the stock market, I am a student of the classical guitar. I set a goal this year to learn a piece by Bach called Chaconne. This will be a big challenge for me, as its been a while since I've dedicated myself to such a piece of music. I'll update from time to time on progress.
Have a great week
JP
HPQ - This stock is coming off oversold levels. My entry is around 24.60. I think it can run up to the 20 MA. I would have a tight stop on this one cause it could be a good short below 23.90 too.
SMSI -this one still looks good with a break over Friday's highs of 2.76. Stop would be a close below Friday's close of 2.65. Target is around 3.25.
XRX - Buy over 8.5 with a stop below 20 ma at 8.3. First target around 9-9.19.
My Guitar Studies: Much like my continuing education in the stock market, I am a student of the classical guitar. I set a goal this year to learn a piece by Bach called Chaconne. This will be a big challenge for me, as its been a while since I've dedicated myself to such a piece of music. I'll update from time to time on progress.
Have a great week
JP
Saturday, March 10, 2012
Speculative Play - Sutter Gold Mining (SGMNF.PK)
Today, I'm writing about a speculative stock that I think has some potential for making a big move in the future. I normally do not hold stocks this cheap for more than a couple days due to the risk involved in the swings in stock price. That said, I took a small position in a company called Sutter Gold Mining (SGMNF) back in August. I got in at around 21 cents. Since then, the stock dipped to as low as 14 cents (33% down from my purchase price), but has recently risen back to my buy price on some positive news.
A big factor for me in taking a chance with this company is because the mine location fairly close to where I live. For whatever reason, this gives me a little confidence in the prospects that there is a lot of Gold still left in the California foothills. Maybe one day I'll go tour their site.
Last week, they had a nice press release stating the results of their recent gold survey from drilling. You can read the release on their web site. www.suttergoldmining.com
From the press release, the initial results of the drilling sounds promising. My expectation is that they continue to work toward mine production and processing gold later this year. The weather here in Northern California has been very dry for winter, which means that they can continue to make good progress in making preparations for actual production. In other words, I would guess that they are either on track or ahead of schedule in meeting their production deadlines.
Volume in the stock has also picked up since it was added to a higher level exchange (still over the counter).
Keep in mind that a 20 cent stock that moves down 2 cents lost 10%. This can happen in a day for stocks priced this low. The risk is very high with this one, so I'm counting on a series of positive press releases in the coming months that could enhance the price of the stock, giving me a chance to at least make double on my investment.
Have a good week!
~JP
A big factor for me in taking a chance with this company is because the mine location fairly close to where I live. For whatever reason, this gives me a little confidence in the prospects that there is a lot of Gold still left in the California foothills. Maybe one day I'll go tour their site.
Last week, they had a nice press release stating the results of their recent gold survey from drilling. You can read the release on their web site. www.suttergoldmining.com
From the press release, the initial results of the drilling sounds promising. My expectation is that they continue to work toward mine production and processing gold later this year. The weather here in Northern California has been very dry for winter, which means that they can continue to make good progress in making preparations for actual production. In other words, I would guess that they are either on track or ahead of schedule in meeting their production deadlines.
Volume in the stock has also picked up since it was added to a higher level exchange (still over the counter).
Keep in mind that a 20 cent stock that moves down 2 cents lost 10%. This can happen in a day for stocks priced this low. The risk is very high with this one, so I'm counting on a series of positive press releases in the coming months that could enhance the price of the stock, giving me a chance to at least make double on my investment.
Have a good week!
~JP
Thursday, March 1, 2012
Updates - 401k & RIC
This is a tough market to take new positions in. I feel the risk/reward is not good enough to warrant any new long-term positions. Therefore, I've made some significant adjustments to my 401k to position for a potential short-term down trend...per my prior blog posts. Capital preservation is what I'm striving for until I see some sort of correction in the market in the amount of at least 4%. If the markets come back to test the 20 or 50 day ma, I will begin to scale back into more aggressive positions.
Gold and Oil are specific areas that I would consider holding stocks in. I've been watching $RIC to dip below $11, which occurred yesterday. I took a position at $10.75 and thought it would bounce there. Unfortunately, it kept diving down. Instead of stopping out, I held expecting a bounce. I'm currently down about 5%, but I think it could bounce from here. Tomorrow could be an important day for deciding whether I stay in or cut my losses. Fingers crossed....
Until I see a decent pull back in the markets, my position sizes will be smaller and my stops will be tighter. I will also be very picky about my entries.
Good luck to all...
~JP
Gold and Oil are specific areas that I would consider holding stocks in. I've been watching $RIC to dip below $11, which occurred yesterday. I took a position at $10.75 and thought it would bounce there. Unfortunately, it kept diving down. Instead of stopping out, I held expecting a bounce. I'm currently down about 5%, but I think it could bounce from here. Tomorrow could be an important day for deciding whether I stay in or cut my losses. Fingers crossed....
Until I see a decent pull back in the markets, my position sizes will be smaller and my stops will be tighter. I will also be very picky about my entries.
Good luck to all...
~JP
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Weekly Review and Watch List
Trading was a bit more tricky last week as I got stopped out of a few positions. I expect this to remain the norm until the market decides on a meaningful pullback to correct the overbought conditions. I'd like to see a pull back to the 1326 area on the SPX and the 1306 area for me to get a lot more bullish. The risk/reward in the market isn't compelling to me at this juncture. Therefore, I am becoming more defensive by using smaller position sizes and taking quick profits.
Here's what I'm watching...
DNN - Bought this about a week ago at $1.90. After pulling back to the $1.70 area, it popped above $2 last week. I want to see it hold above the $1.90 level for continued move up. The 50 day ma is crossing the 200 day ma. I have a stop at around $1.70 with a target at $2.50.
RIC - Still watching for dip to $11 area or breakout above $12.91. Which ever trigger hits first, I'll establish a game plan.
I'm interested to see if the steel sector might get a bump. If so, I'll watch these...
CLF - Oversold stock that had a good bounce on Friday with volume. I might consider an entry over the 50 day ma at around $68.75. Target is 200 day ma around $74. Stop around Friday's close of $67.75
X - I'm watching over $29 with a target of $31.50 (200 day ma). Stop $28.05, or 50 day ma.
GLW - Watching this over $14. Stop $13.46 (20 and 50 day ma). First target $15 (200 day ma). Second target $15.75.
Everyone have a good week.
Daytona 500 rain delayed till tomorrow. :-(
~JP
Here's what I'm watching...
DNN - Bought this about a week ago at $1.90. After pulling back to the $1.70 area, it popped above $2 last week. I want to see it hold above the $1.90 level for continued move up. The 50 day ma is crossing the 200 day ma. I have a stop at around $1.70 with a target at $2.50.
RIC - Still watching for dip to $11 area or breakout above $12.91. Which ever trigger hits first, I'll establish a game plan.
I'm interested to see if the steel sector might get a bump. If so, I'll watch these...
CLF - Oversold stock that had a good bounce on Friday with volume. I might consider an entry over the 50 day ma at around $68.75. Target is 200 day ma around $74. Stop around Friday's close of $67.75
X - I'm watching over $29 with a target of $31.50 (200 day ma). Stop $28.05, or 50 day ma.
GLW - Watching this over $14. Stop $13.46 (20 and 50 day ma). First target $15 (200 day ma). Second target $15.75.
Daytona 500 rain delayed till tomorrow. :-(
~JP
Friday, February 24, 2012
Semi-Annual 401k Adjustments -- Update
About a month ago, I wrote about changes that I was looking to make to my 401k allocations. One of the allocations that I was going to increase dramatically was the bond fund. I've had second thoughts on that and now think that it would be better to stay in a money market option. The risk to bonds due to inflation is more dramatic than I'd like and, therefore will be changing my allocation from around 40% to roughly 5% bonds and having the remaining dollars allocated back to the money market fund.
Honestly, I don't know much about bonds and always thought that they were a "safe" alternative to equities. I have been hearing people like Buffet talk about how risky they are in this economic environment relative to long-term equities. He's probably right, but I don't want to bet on equities over the short-term either due to many potential issues around the world, including Euro debt, US debt, Unemployment, Iran, and oil prices. Cash may be king over the next 6 months or so....who knows. I didn't think we'd see 1370 on the S&P this soon in the year either.
If we get a meaningful pullback to somewhere around the 1300 on the S&P, I might scale into large and mid-cap growth funds. But, I think we have a month or if we see it.
~JP
Honestly, I don't know much about bonds and always thought that they were a "safe" alternative to equities. I have been hearing people like Buffet talk about how risky they are in this economic environment relative to long-term equities. He's probably right, but I don't want to bet on equities over the short-term either due to many potential issues around the world, including Euro debt, US debt, Unemployment, Iran, and oil prices. Cash may be king over the next 6 months or so....who knows. I didn't think we'd see 1370 on the S&P this soon in the year either.
If we get a meaningful pullback to somewhere around the 1300 on the S&P, I might scale into large and mid-cap growth funds. But, I think we have a month or if we see it.
~JP
Saturday, February 18, 2012
Weekly Review and Watch List
Last week, the market was pretty choppy, making it tough to hold positions without getting stopped out. The week started out on a down note as I got caught in a negative earnings play for MAS for a 8% loss. I also got stopped out of a MKTG with a 2.7% loss. MKTG is a very thin stock with high volatility. And while looking for the breakout at $12, the stock dipped the next morning and I ended up selling at the low of the day. The rest of my plays had small gains from zero to 6%.
I'm still in the DNN position, which is looking much better. It dipped just below the $1.70 and bounced to close strong at $1.85 on Friday. I still have a mid-term target of $2.50.
Other stocks I'll be watching...
VZ -Still watching that $27 area on VZ. I may take a starter position since it popped above the 50 day ma. I'd add to it if it dropped to the $27 area. A break of the lower uptrend line would cause me to stop out. My long term perspective sees this in the $40s.
NLST - I'm watching this one again for a rebound off the $3.60 area. It seems to be bouncing off the 20 day ma pretty consistently. Not sure how long it can keep it up, but might be worth another try. I'll be watching for an indication of support around $3.60. Target would be around $4. Stop would be tight with break of 20 day ma.
RIC - This is a gold stock I'm keeping my eyes on. I like the way this chart looks. I'd be interested to see if this tests the lower upward trend line for an entry, maybe around $10.75. If Gold stays strong, this stock can show some strength. Its got a nice wedge pattern that's formed since Sept last year. I'd like to buy on a dip and see this move to the top end of the range for a potential break out. Stop would be around $10.50
Budweiser Shootout winner Kyle Busch. Great win for Kyle after nearly crashing twice.
I'm still in the DNN position, which is looking much better. It dipped just below the $1.70 and bounced to close strong at $1.85 on Friday. I still have a mid-term target of $2.50.
Other stocks I'll be watching...
VZ -Still watching that $27 area on VZ. I may take a starter position since it popped above the 50 day ma. I'd add to it if it dropped to the $27 area. A break of the lower uptrend line would cause me to stop out. My long term perspective sees this in the $40s.
NLST - I'm watching this one again for a rebound off the $3.60 area. It seems to be bouncing off the 20 day ma pretty consistently. Not sure how long it can keep it up, but might be worth another try. I'll be watching for an indication of support around $3.60. Target would be around $4. Stop would be tight with break of 20 day ma.
RIC - This is a gold stock I'm keeping my eyes on. I like the way this chart looks. I'd be interested to see if this tests the lower upward trend line for an entry, maybe around $10.75. If Gold stays strong, this stock can show some strength. Its got a nice wedge pattern that's formed since Sept last year. I'd like to buy on a dip and see this move to the top end of the range for a potential break out. Stop would be around $10.50
Budweiser Shootout winner Kyle Busch. Great win for Kyle after nearly crashing twice.
Monday, February 13, 2012
Bad Luck Happens
Sometimes trading your plan prevents you from realizing some big gains. Today, ROYL and GNOM saw a huge pop for 18+% and 47%, respectively. It just so happens that I got stopped out of both stocks by one or two pennies each on Friday. Its very frustrating because I could have had some huge gains.
Likewise, I got into MAS on the breakout of $13.15. The stock closed higher at around $13.25 and is looking good. I failed to realize that earnings were released after the market closed. Based on the selling after hours, it doesn't look too good. We'll have to see what the damage is like tomorrow morning. I'll take my chances to try to get out when the market opens.
Even though I missed out on some big gains, I traded my plan and respected my stop points. Sometimes this scenario happens. If it happens a lot, I might need to adjust my strategy. Since it doesn't, I'll chalk it up to bad luck. Who knows, if I would have held, the stocks could have been down 10+%.
Not understanding when earnings are released is something I need to be more diligent with. I do not want to be holding stocks through earnings. There is just too much risk.
Trade your plan. Stay in the game. Learn to survive, then learn to profit.
~JP
Likewise, I got into MAS on the breakout of $13.15. The stock closed higher at around $13.25 and is looking good. I failed to realize that earnings were released after the market closed. Based on the selling after hours, it doesn't look too good. We'll have to see what the damage is like tomorrow morning. I'll take my chances to try to get out when the market opens.
Even though I missed out on some big gains, I traded my plan and respected my stop points. Sometimes this scenario happens. If it happens a lot, I might need to adjust my strategy. Since it doesn't, I'll chalk it up to bad luck. Who knows, if I would have held, the stocks could have been down 10+%.
Not understanding when earnings are released is something I need to be more diligent with. I do not want to be holding stocks through earnings. There is just too much risk.
Trade your plan. Stay in the game. Learn to survive, then learn to profit.
~JP
Saturday, February 11, 2012
Short Idea - PTEN
I usually don't short stocks, but I thought I'd throw out an idea. PTEN is looking really weak below Friday's low around $17.85. The bottom of the down channel has the target around $16.50 or a little over $1 in profit. I would put a stop around $18. With market weakness over the next couple days, this might work out.
~JP
~JP
Weekly Review and Watch List
The market is due for a pullback and Friday may have been the start of a short-term reversal. As the trend may be changing, I'll probably do a lot more watching to see where things go. Its tough to have patience when you're expecting a pullback in the markets. So, I've been a little quick to sell in this environment. However. I've realize that I need to exercise a bit more patience when stocks are working in my favor.
Here's a summary of last week's calls:
EGHT - I took position in this on Wednesday as it started to break out of its flag at around $4.52. I got stopped out at about break even.
ROYL - I bought some of ROYL at $4.55 on Wednesday with the anticipation that it would break upward out of its wedge pattern. My stop was at $4.36, which triggered on Friday. This was frustrating because the stock rallied a bit into the close and closed positive. It still has potential to move up from here.
DEXO - I bought DEXO on Tuesday at $1.81 to see it close at $1.90. Because I was worried about the overall market being overbought, I closed my position that day. Unfortunately for me, the stock moved up the next day and ran to $2.23 at the high. So instead of a 20% gain in 2 days, I settled for a 4% gain on the same day.
NLST - This had a big run past $4 as I mentioned in prior blogs. I didn't take a position here as I missed my ideal entry and didn't want to chase the stock price.
Here's what I'm looking forward to:
DNN - I like the way this stock is looking. I took a small position on Friday at $1.90 as it was breaking out of its wedge pattern. I need this to hold its lateral support line at $1.70 to stay in the position. That's a pretty loose stop, but an upward move could take this to $2.50, then $3.
Entry = $1.90 (Currently at $1.86)
Stop = $1.70
Target = $2.50
VZ - As noted a couple weeks ago, VZ is in a short-term down trend within a larger uptrend. I'm watching for a pull back to the $37 zone, where we see double support from the long-term uptrend and long-term lateral support. It also would represent a short-term double bottom. A bounce at that level could take this stock to the $40 range within a month or two.
Entry = $37
Stop = $36 (You could go a little tighter at $36.25-.50)
Target = $40
~JP
Here's a summary of last week's calls:
EGHT - I took position in this on Wednesday as it started to break out of its flag at around $4.52. I got stopped out at about break even.
ROYL - I bought some of ROYL at $4.55 on Wednesday with the anticipation that it would break upward out of its wedge pattern. My stop was at $4.36, which triggered on Friday. This was frustrating because the stock rallied a bit into the close and closed positive. It still has potential to move up from here.
DEXO - I bought DEXO on Tuesday at $1.81 to see it close at $1.90. Because I was worried about the overall market being overbought, I closed my position that day. Unfortunately for me, the stock moved up the next day and ran to $2.23 at the high. So instead of a 20% gain in 2 days, I settled for a 4% gain on the same day.
NLST - This had a big run past $4 as I mentioned in prior blogs. I didn't take a position here as I missed my ideal entry and didn't want to chase the stock price.
Here's what I'm looking forward to:
DNN - I like the way this stock is looking. I took a small position on Friday at $1.90 as it was breaking out of its wedge pattern. I need this to hold its lateral support line at $1.70 to stay in the position. That's a pretty loose stop, but an upward move could take this to $2.50, then $3.
Entry = $1.90 (Currently at $1.86)
Stop = $1.70
Target = $2.50
VZ - As noted a couple weeks ago, VZ is in a short-term down trend within a larger uptrend. I'm watching for a pull back to the $37 zone, where we see double support from the long-term uptrend and long-term lateral support. It also would represent a short-term double bottom. A bounce at that level could take this stock to the $40 range within a month or two.
Entry = $37
Stop = $36 (You could go a little tighter at $36.25-.50)
Target = $40
~JP
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Weekly Review and Watch List
Trade Review: VZ, HPQ, NLST, X
For various reasons, I didn't play any of last week's setups (from last weeks blog post). Each stock had good opportunities, but I don't have a lot of confidence that this market can continue to move up day after day. I expect a short term pullback to around the 1267 area on the SPX. A pull back and consolidation in the indexes would allow for a strong move up to possible test the all time market highs. There's a lot that can happen before we get there, so I'm cautiously optimistic.
VZ - we were looking for a $36.50 entry point, but it only got down to just above $37 before it ran up above $38 in the next couple days. The short term channel, since the beginning of the year, indicates that this could still hit $36.50 or its 200 day ma ($36ish) over the next week or two before the next bounce. we'll keep an eye on it.
HPQ - This was another good call with a dip by around $27.25. The low was $27.23 on a gap down before it ran up to close positive and continue on for the remaining of the week. Its now sitting at $29.07 and looks to be heading to its 200 day ma at $30. A break above that could see this run to the mid $30s. I won't be playing it, but will watch to see what happens.
NLST - This had a nice move on Friday after hitting the $3.15 target early in the week. This may try for another run at $4 shortly.
X - Earnings created a pretty volatile day, but created a good opportunity to buy in on the dip around $29. On earnings day, the stock gaped up, then pulled back which would be a good opportunity to buy. Since then, the stock has moved up and is closing in on my target of $33. Too bad i missed this on too.
The charts tell me that there are still a lot of opportunities out there. I'm not sure when we'll get the pullback, but you gotta play what's in front of you until the market tells you things have changed. I've been taking smaller positions and limit the positions that I hold overnight. This will keep the risk controllable in the event the market sells off.
Some new positions I'm watching are:
DEXO - This is a bit of a tricky stock, but Friday had a strong move early that faded throughout the day. The price is sitting on the 50 day ma, which will be crossing the 200 day ma shortly. It's also sitting on its long term uptrend line. For this one, I might enter early with a cross above the 200 day ma at $1.76 and set a stop below the recent lows around $1.65 or its 50 day ma, $1.69. Target would be around $2.25-$2.50.
ROYL - I'm looking for this stock to break above $4.92 for entry. Target $5.12, then $5.50. Stop $4.84.
EGHT - A flag if forming here after an earnings breakout, which is a good catalyst for us to see a continuation. The buy point is $4.50. My Stop looks to be below the 20 day ma at around $4.38. Target will be $5, but could go as high as $5.50+.
~JP
For various reasons, I didn't play any of last week's setups (from last weeks blog post). Each stock had good opportunities, but I don't have a lot of confidence that this market can continue to move up day after day. I expect a short term pullback to around the 1267 area on the SPX. A pull back and consolidation in the indexes would allow for a strong move up to possible test the all time market highs. There's a lot that can happen before we get there, so I'm cautiously optimistic.
VZ - we were looking for a $36.50 entry point, but it only got down to just above $37 before it ran up above $38 in the next couple days. The short term channel, since the beginning of the year, indicates that this could still hit $36.50 or its 200 day ma ($36ish) over the next week or two before the next bounce. we'll keep an eye on it.
HPQ - This was another good call with a dip by around $27.25. The low was $27.23 on a gap down before it ran up to close positive and continue on for the remaining of the week. Its now sitting at $29.07 and looks to be heading to its 200 day ma at $30. A break above that could see this run to the mid $30s. I won't be playing it, but will watch to see what happens.
NLST - This had a nice move on Friday after hitting the $3.15 target early in the week. This may try for another run at $4 shortly.
X - Earnings created a pretty volatile day, but created a good opportunity to buy in on the dip around $29. On earnings day, the stock gaped up, then pulled back which would be a good opportunity to buy. Since then, the stock has moved up and is closing in on my target of $33. Too bad i missed this on too.
The charts tell me that there are still a lot of opportunities out there. I'm not sure when we'll get the pullback, but you gotta play what's in front of you until the market tells you things have changed. I've been taking smaller positions and limit the positions that I hold overnight. This will keep the risk controllable in the event the market sells off.
Some new positions I'm watching are:
DEXO - This is a bit of a tricky stock, but Friday had a strong move early that faded throughout the day. The price is sitting on the 50 day ma, which will be crossing the 200 day ma shortly. It's also sitting on its long term uptrend line. For this one, I might enter early with a cross above the 200 day ma at $1.76 and set a stop below the recent lows around $1.65 or its 50 day ma, $1.69. Target would be around $2.25-$2.50.
ROYL - I'm looking for this stock to break above $4.92 for entry. Target $5.12, then $5.50. Stop $4.84.
EGHT - A flag if forming here after an earnings breakout, which is a good catalyst for us to see a continuation. The buy point is $4.50. My Stop looks to be below the 20 day ma at around $4.38. Target will be $5, but could go as high as $5.50+.
Monday, January 30, 2012
Earnings - X
I mentioned that X could be a decent dip buy the other day. I neglected to check to see when earnings were reported. Well...they report tomorrow. So, my outlook changes, since i don't hold into earnings and negative earnings could drop the stock pretty quick.
That said, keep an eye on the lower trend line, which is also around the 50 day ma, about $26.75. It could bounce off this level for a point or two.
~JP
That said, keep an eye on the lower trend line, which is also around the 50 day ma, about $26.75. It could bounce off this level for a point or two.
~JP
Sunday, January 29, 2012
VZ, HPQ, NLST, X
Hi All, I expect a bit of a pull back in the markets short-term. Therefore, I will be looking for dip-buy opportunities. Its important to not jump right in and buy if the buy targets hit. Consider how the market is acting, how the sector is acting, and how the stocks are acting. If you do buy, don't ignore your stop price. Protect your capital.
Here are a few new ideas that you might buy on a dip.
VZ - All the support and trend lines have me keeping an eye on the $36.50-$37 area. It may take a few days to get there. My optimal buy price is $36.50 with a stop just below $36. The company had earnings on the 25th and sold off a bit on them. I think they may not have been as bad as some would think. Plus, they still have a strong dividend. The daily stochastics, MACD, and RSI are all in the oversold ranges. With a buy at $36.50, I have a target at around $38.50, or $2 (aprox. 5%) profit. Risk $0.50 for $2 potential.
HPQ - I'm watching the $27-$27.25 area for a dip buy on HPQ. The stock broke out of a short-term coiling pattern and tested its 5-6 month highs. It looks like it may test that breakout. The 20 and 50 day moving averages are just below this $27 area for additional support. With a buy at $27, my stop is around $26.25 and a target around $30 (or 200 day ma).
X - I took a trade in X last week as it broke out of its resistance on Wednesday. I bought around $29.10 and sold around $30.25. I still think there is some opportunity in this stock. It pulled back to the $29 area again and popped off that level on Friday. If the stock starts weak and ends strong (red/green) it might be an good sign to get in for a continued move upwards. The 200 day ma is lurking above at just over $33, which would be a good target.
NLST - There has been some good strength in this stock recently. I missed my last call to buy in the $2.79 and $3 areas for the move to $3.50...ugh. But, I'll be watching for this $3.15 area to hold and bounce for a continued upside. The 50 day ma may have to catch up with the price on this one as it seems to be using this average as support.
Please leave a comment!
~JP
Here are a few new ideas that you might buy on a dip.
VZ - All the support and trend lines have me keeping an eye on the $36.50-$37 area. It may take a few days to get there. My optimal buy price is $36.50 with a stop just below $36. The company had earnings on the 25th and sold off a bit on them. I think they may not have been as bad as some would think. Plus, they still have a strong dividend. The daily stochastics, MACD, and RSI are all in the oversold ranges. With a buy at $36.50, I have a target at around $38.50, or $2 (aprox. 5%) profit. Risk $0.50 for $2 potential.
HPQ - I'm watching the $27-$27.25 area for a dip buy on HPQ. The stock broke out of a short-term coiling pattern and tested its 5-6 month highs. It looks like it may test that breakout. The 20 and 50 day moving averages are just below this $27 area for additional support. With a buy at $27, my stop is around $26.25 and a target around $30 (or 200 day ma).
X - I took a trade in X last week as it broke out of its resistance on Wednesday. I bought around $29.10 and sold around $30.25. I still think there is some opportunity in this stock. It pulled back to the $29 area again and popped off that level on Friday. If the stock starts weak and ends strong (red/green) it might be an good sign to get in for a continued move upwards. The 200 day ma is lurking above at just over $33, which would be a good target.
~JP
Monday, January 23, 2012
Trade Review - HPQ, STAA, PEIX, NLST, VLNC
This is an update on my recent actions.
HPQ - I sold my stake in HPQ after it hit my target of $28.50. I took about 7% from $26.67.
NLST - I'm kicking myself because I missed my entry at $3 today. This made a 10% move today and could see more tomorrow. I didn't want to chase it, so I'll just watch it go.
STAA - I put a buy order in for this stock at $10.69 before I left for work this morning. I felt it would bounce off these support levels. The trade triggered while the market was dropping this morning. The stock closed close to its lows today, so if it doesn't hold those levels, I'm going to be out pretty quick.
VLNC - I wasn't seeing any movement in the morning, so I sold on a weak bid at $1.06 from $1.05 add on Friday.
PEIX - I bought into this stock this morning on strength at $1.19 and sold half shortly after at $1.25. I had a stop order placed for $1.19, which triggered while on my way to work. Unfortunately, I sold the second have at the low of the day. The close looked fairly strong, so I took a new position at $1.23....we'll see how it reacts tomorrow.
I also took some stupid trades for losses. TVIX and CONN didn't work out too well. Sometimes, you just need to walk away from the computer to avoid over-trading. Overall, a down day for me...I need to pace myself and stick with the best setups. NLST and PEIX should have been all I needed today.
~JP
HPQ - I sold my stake in HPQ after it hit my target of $28.50. I took about 7% from $26.67.
NLST - I'm kicking myself because I missed my entry at $3 today. This made a 10% move today and could see more tomorrow. I didn't want to chase it, so I'll just watch it go.
STAA - I put a buy order in for this stock at $10.69 before I left for work this morning. I felt it would bounce off these support levels. The trade triggered while the market was dropping this morning. The stock closed close to its lows today, so if it doesn't hold those levels, I'm going to be out pretty quick.
VLNC - I wasn't seeing any movement in the morning, so I sold on a weak bid at $1.06 from $1.05 add on Friday.
PEIX - I bought into this stock this morning on strength at $1.19 and sold half shortly after at $1.25. I had a stop order placed for $1.19, which triggered while on my way to work. Unfortunately, I sold the second have at the low of the day. The close looked fairly strong, so I took a new position at $1.23....we'll see how it reacts tomorrow.
I also took some stupid trades for losses. TVIX and CONN didn't work out too well. Sometimes, you just need to walk away from the computer to avoid over-trading. Overall, a down day for me...I need to pace myself and stick with the best setups. NLST and PEIX should have been all I needed today.
~JP
Saturday, January 21, 2012
Trade Review and New Opportunities - MSFT, X, HPQ, STAA, PEIX, NLST, VLNC
Hey All, Hope everyone had a good week. There were some good moves in a few tech names despite negative earnings by Google.
As I mentioned in prior blog posts MSFT has been looking really strong and has made an awesome move over the past couple weeks. It continued its upward push on Friday. I took an entry when MSFT hit its lower trend line ($24ish), but sold in the $26 range....wish I was still holding this one. Oh well, that's how it goes sometimes.
I mentioned a recent position in HPQ, which had a strong day on Friday too. I'm looking for some continuation in the price movement before it hits some resistance at around $28.5 to $30.
I sold my shares in US Steel, X, last week for about break even. Right after I entered the position, the stock sold off for about 4% I purchased some additional shares around the lower trendline. Luckily, the stock bounded strongly off this level and allowed me to exit without any losses. It still may move up, but the market is moving into a resistance zone and this stock tends to trade with the market. If the market drops, this could follow in a big way. I was a bit worried that it had been lagging the general market and was setting up for a move lower.
Here are some other stocks I will be watching this week.
STAA - I will be looking to buy around the lower trend-line pull back at around $10.69 (which is close to its 20 day ma). This will have a pretty tight stop at around $10.45/.50. First target is back at the recent highs of $11.70. If it breaks that level, it could see $12.50-$13 pretty quick.
VLNC - I purchased this on Friday at $1.05 as it broke out of its flag. I'm keeping a close eye on this one Monday. If it moves up with volume, it could see $1.20/.25 pretty quickly. I'll stop out at around $1.02.
NLST - I wanted to buy this at the lower trend-line around $2.75, but didn't watch it close enough. Its had a nice bounce of that level. A push over $3 could get this rolling. I might look for a lower open and move to a positive level for entry around $3. Stop would be around $2.95. Target $3.25/.45.
PEIX - Keeping an eye on this one. Its coiling up in to a wedge that is supported by its 50 and 20 day ma. If it breaks above the $1.20 level, it could get going and run for a while. First target is $1.50. Stop would be around the 50 day ma, $1.10.
These small stocks can be tough to trade, so I typically take 1/2 size positions on these.
~JP
As I mentioned in prior blog posts MSFT has been looking really strong and has made an awesome move over the past couple weeks. It continued its upward push on Friday. I took an entry when MSFT hit its lower trend line ($24ish), but sold in the $26 range....wish I was still holding this one. Oh well, that's how it goes sometimes.
I mentioned a recent position in HPQ, which had a strong day on Friday too. I'm looking for some continuation in the price movement before it hits some resistance at around $28.5 to $30.
I sold my shares in US Steel, X, last week for about break even. Right after I entered the position, the stock sold off for about 4% I purchased some additional shares around the lower trendline. Luckily, the stock bounded strongly off this level and allowed me to exit without any losses. It still may move up, but the market is moving into a resistance zone and this stock tends to trade with the market. If the market drops, this could follow in a big way. I was a bit worried that it had been lagging the general market and was setting up for a move lower.
Here are some other stocks I will be watching this week.
STAA - I will be looking to buy around the lower trend-line pull back at around $10.69 (which is close to its 20 day ma). This will have a pretty tight stop at around $10.45/.50. First target is back at the recent highs of $11.70. If it breaks that level, it could see $12.50-$13 pretty quick.
NLST - I wanted to buy this at the lower trend-line around $2.75, but didn't watch it close enough. Its had a nice bounce of that level. A push over $3 could get this rolling. I might look for a lower open and move to a positive level for entry around $3. Stop would be around $2.95. Target $3.25/.45.
~JP
Monday, January 16, 2012
Dealing with Losses in Trading
A big part of trading stocks, weather long or short-term perspectives, is dealing with and accepting losing your hard earned money. Since my perspective has been more short-term biased over the past couple years, I've learned that accepting losses is just a part of the game in order to move my account forward.
The key, which is displayed in the table below, is that you limit your losses relative to the gains that you make. Sounds pretty obvious, right? Well, it made a lot more sense to me when I put this table together and played with the numbers to see how the results turned out. The table below show a 50% win/loss ratio, the same average trade size, but the average gains are better than the losses incurred. As a result, the net gains are positive. You can transfer this data to a spreadsheet and play with the numbers to evaluate different scenarios. Maybe your average gains are smaller for your winning trades, but you have a higher win/loss percentage. That also works, if you can stay nimble in taking quicker profits.
Commissions also become a factor if your average trade size drops. You can have positive gains with your trades but as your average trade size drops, commissions stay static and eat into your profits quicker.
Don't get me wrong, win/loss percentage is important, but you are not going to win 100% of the time. However, you can be successful if you only win 50% of the time, even less. Limiting your losses is huge. As your average loss increase, it becomes more difficult stay positive with your overall trading profits. In my own trading, I've gotten into the habit of being more mechanical in sticking with my stop losses between to 2-2.5% of the trade. Also, if the trade is not working in my favor quickly, I'm more apt to accept a break-even trade or less than 1% loss. Instead of looking at a losing trade as a loss, I view it as protecting my capital. There will always be another opportunity in the market. Don't put your money at risk on hope. Protecting your investment capital is key to longevity and success.
~JP
The key, which is displayed in the table below, is that you limit your losses relative to the gains that you make. Sounds pretty obvious, right? Well, it made a lot more sense to me when I put this table together and played with the numbers to see how the results turned out. The table below show a 50% win/loss ratio, the same average trade size, but the average gains are better than the losses incurred. As a result, the net gains are positive. You can transfer this data to a spreadsheet and play with the numbers to evaluate different scenarios. Maybe your average gains are smaller for your winning trades, but you have a higher win/loss percentage. That also works, if you can stay nimble in taking quicker profits.
Commissions also become a factor if your average trade size drops. You can have positive gains with your trades but as your average trade size drops, commissions stay static and eat into your profits quicker.
Don't get me wrong, win/loss percentage is important, but you are not going to win 100% of the time. However, you can be successful if you only win 50% of the time, even less. Limiting your losses is huge. As your average loss increase, it becomes more difficult stay positive with your overall trading profits. In my own trading, I've gotten into the habit of being more mechanical in sticking with my stop losses between to 2-2.5% of the trade. Also, if the trade is not working in my favor quickly, I'm more apt to accept a break-even trade or less than 1% loss. Instead of looking at a losing trade as a loss, I view it as protecting my capital. There will always be another opportunity in the market. Don't put your money at risk on hope. Protecting your investment capital is key to longevity and success.
~JP
| TRADES | AVG TRADE SIZE | AVG GAIN LOSS % | GAIN LOSS $ | COMMISSIONS | NET GAIN LOSS | |
| WINNING | 50 | $ 2,000 | 5.0% | $ 5,000 | $ 700 | $ 4,300 |
| LOSING | 50 | $ 2,000 | 2.0% | $ 2,000 | $ 700 | $ 2,700 |
| $ 3,000 | $ 1,400 | $ 1,600 |
Thursday, January 12, 2012
Trade Updates - X, NLST, HPQ, PEIX
Howdy Folks! The markets have been progressively moving higher and a lot of smaller stocks have been bouncing big for 20, 30, 40% gains per day over the last two weeks. Here is an update on some newer positions I've taken.
I mentioned $NLST a week ago or so ago with a buy price of $2.44. I sold a few days later at $3.05 (25% gain) as the stock met my target of $3. The stock has pulled back a bit since and can make another run. But, I think volume needs to pick up.
I took a recent new position in Hewlett-Packard, $HPQ at $26.64. The stock is currently flagging around its 50 day ma after it bounced off of the lower up-trend line. My short-term target is $28.50, then $30. My stop is around $25.50 or so. The stock had been beat up pretty good over the last year from the $40-$50 range and could get a bounce for value investors. The key is to hold the 50 day ma.
I also took a new partial position in US Steel, $X at $28.74 today. I really like the base that is being created here. There is some lateral and down-trend line resistance that looks like might be broken soon. I mentioned this stock about a week ago and never got in cause of the big gap up on the day. I missed buying on the pull back over the last few days. It looks like its filled the gap and wants to head higher. I'm looking for a $30-32 target. My stop will be pretty loose here and I may add if the stock pulls back to the lower trend line around $25.25. If it doesn't hold that lower trend line, then I will exit the position.
Another new position I took today is Pacific Ethanol, $PEIX at $1.13. There is a long-term down-trend line that is being tested @ $1.20. If it breaks that, the 200 day ma is the next test @ $1.36. My stop is pretty tight here at around $1.10.
Feel free to comment. Have a good weekend.
~JP
I mentioned $NLST a week ago or so ago with a buy price of $2.44. I sold a few days later at $3.05 (25% gain) as the stock met my target of $3. The stock has pulled back a bit since and can make another run. But, I think volume needs to pick up.
Another new position I took today is Pacific Ethanol, $PEIX at $1.13. There is a long-term down-trend line that is being tested @ $1.20. If it breaks that, the 200 day ma is the next test @ $1.36. My stop is pretty tight here at around $1.10.
~JP
Sunday, January 8, 2012
Semi-Annual 401k Adjustments
Twice a year (January/Febuary and August/September), I make a practice of evaluating adjustments that I should make to my 401k. After all, my 401k has a decent amount of money in it and I want to retire someday...so, I think its important to manage the fund allocations according to my perception of market risk over the next few months. I also noticed that the older I get, the more conservative my fund elections get. So, I'll continue that trend over the years.
I plan on making some serious changes in the next month by getting a lot more conservative in my risk exposure. Why, you might ask?
First, I'm looking at where the Dow and S&P500 are currently at and what their trends are (200ma). In my opinion, we are at a high point while the indices are still in a bear market. The potential upside is not as significant as the potential downside.
Second, I look at events that could lead to further downside. European debt is my biggest fear at the moment. There are a number of countries in trouble and, eventually, simple math will force some tough decisions that will lead to a temporary ripple that the markets won't like.
Third, many domestic issues have not gone away. US Debt continues to rise, unemployment has not moved significantly down, oil prices are stuck around $100 per barrel (Iran could make it worse), housing is not bouncing, and we have politics. There is a fair possibility that the US can fall back into recession early this year.
So, my new changes are factoring in a lot of these ideas. If I'm wrong, I will have little growth in my account. If I'm right, I stand to SAVE a lot. Note that by limiting my risk, I'm expecting little to no growth in my account for the next 6-9 months, until I reassess in Sept/Oct.
Anything can happen though. The S&P could move up to 1500 in the next few months. Maybe the Fed issues QE3 to push off the problems for another couple years.
I want to emphasize that I don't like to try and "time" the market, but the last market crash opened my eyes a bit to the hit that my 401k took at the time. If I could have protected 10-20% of the value of my account back then, I would have saved a lot of money. So, this is the first time I'm making significant changes to my account, like the ones I'm proposing.
That said, here's what I'm gonna do...
My last changes were in Q2 2011 and Mid-2010. I plan on making my new allocations sometime in Q1 2012....probably late January or early February. I'll see how the market plays out over the next couple weeks before I make my moves.
Feel free to leave a comment.
~JP
***Please see my update to this post***
I plan on making some serious changes in the next month by getting a lot more conservative in my risk exposure. Why, you might ask?
First, I'm looking at where the Dow and S&P500 are currently at and what their trends are (200ma). In my opinion, we are at a high point while the indices are still in a bear market. The potential upside is not as significant as the potential downside.
Second, I look at events that could lead to further downside. European debt is my biggest fear at the moment. There are a number of countries in trouble and, eventually, simple math will force some tough decisions that will lead to a temporary ripple that the markets won't like.
Third, many domestic issues have not gone away. US Debt continues to rise, unemployment has not moved significantly down, oil prices are stuck around $100 per barrel (Iran could make it worse), housing is not bouncing, and we have politics. There is a fair possibility that the US can fall back into recession early this year.
So, my new changes are factoring in a lot of these ideas. If I'm wrong, I will have little growth in my account. If I'm right, I stand to SAVE a lot. Note that by limiting my risk, I'm expecting little to no growth in my account for the next 6-9 months, until I reassess in Sept/Oct.
Anything can happen though. The S&P could move up to 1500 in the next few months. Maybe the Fed issues QE3 to push off the problems for another couple years.
I want to emphasize that I don't like to try and "time" the market, but the last market crash opened my eyes a bit to the hit that my 401k took at the time. If I could have protected 10-20% of the value of my account back then, I would have saved a lot of money. So, this is the first time I'm making significant changes to my account, like the ones I'm proposing.
That said, here's what I'm gonna do...
My last changes were in Q2 2011 and Mid-2010. I plan on making my new allocations sometime in Q1 2012....probably late January or early February. I'll see how the market plays out over the next couple weeks before I make my moves.
| Year End 2010 | Q2 2011 Allocations | Q1 2012 Allocations | |
| Guaranteed Income Fund | 14.99% | 35% | 20% |
| Bond Fund | 2.13% | 0% | 40% |
| Equity & Income Fund | 23.66% | 20% | 20% |
| S&P 500 Index Fund | 2.89% | 0% | 0% |
| Large Cap Growth Fund | 10.68% | 10% | 5% |
| Large Cap Value Fund | 8.41% | 5% | 3% |
| Mid Cap Value Fund | 10.16% | 8% | 2% |
| Mid Cap Growth Fund | 5.23% | 5% | 4% |
| Small Cap Value Fund | 9.34% | 8% | 2% |
| Small Cap Growth Fund | 5.35% | 5% | 4% |
| Global Strategy Fund | 4.93% | 2% | 0% |
| International Fund | 2.24% | 2% | 0% |
| 100.00% | 100% | 100% |
Feel free to leave a comment.
~JP
***Please see my update to this post***
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
Trade Updates - MSFT, X, NLST
My prior blog posts highlighted Microsoft, MSFT, which recently broke out of a long-them wedge pattern to the upside and leads me to believe that it could reach the $30 mark in the next month or so. Unfortunately, I sold my shares around $26 for a small profit. If the shares pull back to retest the breakout, I may consider buying with a longer term perspective.
Monday's blog highlighted US Steel, X, which had a strong gap up on Tuesday Since I don't like to chase stocks after big gaps, I didn't get in for this move. The stock looks like it might hit the $30 target.
On Monday, I also mentioned NetList, NLST as a potential dip-buy. The stock moved 13% higher today. We'll see if it can get to my first target at $3 in the next few days.
Feel free to comment. I love to hear feedback!
~JP
On Monday, I also mentioned NetList, NLST as a potential dip-buy. The stock moved 13% higher today. We'll see if it can get to my first target at $3 in the next few days.
~JP
Monday, January 2, 2012
Swing Trade Ideas: X and NLST
Hello, Hope everyone had a happy New Year! I'm sure that 2012 will present many opportunities for making profits. As long as the market shows strength this week, I'll be looking to swing trade a couple of stocks. I'm also evaluating my next moves to my 401k. I will write about that in a separate blog post.
First $X, US Steel, looks like it is bouncing off its lower trend line dating back to October. The top of the channel looks to be around $32, which is also price resistance and heading toward the 200ma. So, an entry from around 26.8 would produce around 18%. The stock is currently holding over the 20 and 50ma, which can represent stop points, and is pushing through its long-term down trend channel top. Entry around $26.8. First target around $30, then $32. Kinda loose stop around $25.
Second, $NLST is a stock I bought into with a small position on Friday. The stock had a huge run up in November, pulled back in a bullish descending wedge. On Friday, it bounced off its 50ma and lower upward trend line (from October) with some decent volume. The MACD and Stochastics look like they are setting up for an upward move. Based on previous price action in November, this stock can move. My entry was 2.44, My first target is around $3, then 3.30, then 4.00. Stop at the 50ma.
~JP
First $X, US Steel, looks like it is bouncing off its lower trend line dating back to October. The top of the channel looks to be around $32, which is also price resistance and heading toward the 200ma. So, an entry from around 26.8 would produce around 18%. The stock is currently holding over the 20 and 50ma, which can represent stop points, and is pushing through its long-term down trend channel top. Entry around $26.8. First target around $30, then $32. Kinda loose stop around $25.
Second, $NLST is a stock I bought into with a small position on Friday. The stock had a huge run up in November, pulled back in a bullish descending wedge. On Friday, it bounced off its 50ma and lower upward trend line (from October) with some decent volume. The MACD and Stochastics look like they are setting up for an upward move. Based on previous price action in November, this stock can move. My entry was 2.44, My first target is around $3, then 3.30, then 4.00. Stop at the 50ma.
~JP
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