Sutter Gold Mining (SGMNF) has been an interest and holding of mine for the better part of a year. My stock position is small relative to my total portfolio due to the risk factor of small start-up companies. The company appeals to me for a few reasons...
1) Gold price increase potential
2) Small miner close to production (December 2012)
3) California's history of gold mining in the foothill region (Gold Rush)
4) I live fairly close to the mining location and have an interest in local businesses (without this factor, I probably would have already sold my total position).
On Wednesday, Sutter released more news about its production progress and stated that it is on schedule to meet the December production deadlines. That's good news and I am eager to see the first production report as it could strongly influence the direction of the stock price. The press release also had some pictures from the site that shows progress in construction of the mining sites and mill. These pictures are great to see because it provides some perspective to investors for progress, size and scale of the operation.
To my delight, everything is looking very good. While I have ZERO experience with mining (only what I see on TV), it appears that the construction of mine sites (mine openings and mill) and equipment is high quality. There isn't any rinky-dink equipment, like you'd see on some of the gold mining TV shows. This is a real operations.
It all looks good so far. So, we sit tight and see how it all plays out.
Check out the recent press release...HERE
~JP
Saturday, October 13, 2012
Friday, October 5, 2012
Took the Big Loss in FSLR
Well....that FSLR trade didn't go as planned. In fact, it's tough to see how it could have been any worse. I buy on Wednesday in anticipation of a breakout to the upside. Two days later, I'm selling at a roughly 15% loss as the price knifed through my stop loss. There happened to be a downgrade issues in the morning with some concerns of warranty issues on the companies products. Next thing you know....down 10% pretty quickly. This price action is why I rarely trade solar stocks. On Monday, you could very well see the price recover 5-10%.
So what did I learn about this trade?
The bad....
1) I should have waited for confirmation of a breakout to the upside instead of anticipating the breakout.
2) I had an opportunity to stop out earlier...as the price action and volume (along with news) during the morning was indicating a bigger move downward.
3) Lost ~15%
The good...
1) I had a plan and stuck with it. This plan prevents me from the potential to loose more than anticipated. Even though the trade lost ~15%, that equates to only 0.6% of my total account.
2) I took the appropriate position size (risk) considering the type of stock and volatility. I only took a partial position.
3) I'm still in the game and live to see a new day.
Even though there are some good takeaways in this story, the goal is still to make money. I don't mind making some mistakes as long as others (along with myself) can learn from them.
~JP
So what did I learn about this trade?
The bad....
1) I should have waited for confirmation of a breakout to the upside instead of anticipating the breakout.
2) I had an opportunity to stop out earlier...as the price action and volume (along with news) during the morning was indicating a bigger move downward.
3) Lost ~15%
The good...
1) I had a plan and stuck with it. This plan prevents me from the potential to loose more than anticipated. Even though the trade lost ~15%, that equates to only 0.6% of my total account.
2) I took the appropriate position size (risk) considering the type of stock and volatility. I only took a partial position.
3) I'm still in the game and live to see a new day.
Even though there are some good takeaways in this story, the goal is still to make money. I don't mind making some mistakes as long as others (along with myself) can learn from them.
~JP
Thursday, October 4, 2012
10/4/2012 - New Short Term Positions
Its been a couple months since my last post. The stock market in past month has been really choppy and a challenge to find stocks that could be longer term swing type trades. Since August, I've been holding some gold (GDXJ) and commodity (GCC) ETFs. I also still have some Sutter Gold Mining stock.
I took a stab at First Solar (FSLR) yesterday ($23.28) as it is coiling nicely after a good run up in August. I usually don't like buying solar stocks because of their random volatility, but this is not a long term investment. I expect this to do one of two things; accelerate to the upside or fail dramatically to the downside. My upside target is around $30. My stop is set at $20...or just under. The 50 dma is rising under the wedge and the 200 dma is falling from above. I'd like to see the price move through the 200 dma. These two moving averages should cross soon, which should be bullish.
Current Portfolio
The market looks decent if it can continue to move above September highs. However, it can turn on a dime. With regards to my 401k adjustments, I've decided to hold off on changes until early next year. Protect your capital and stay in the game. I wish everyone the best!
~JP
I took a stab at First Solar (FSLR) yesterday ($23.28) as it is coiling nicely after a good run up in August. I usually don't like buying solar stocks because of their random volatility, but this is not a long term investment. I expect this to do one of two things; accelerate to the upside or fail dramatically to the downside. My upside target is around $30. My stop is set at $20...or just under. The 50 dma is rising under the wedge and the 200 dma is falling from above. I'd like to see the price move through the 200 dma. These two moving averages should cross soon, which should be bullish.
I decided to buy some Silver Miners ETF (SIL) today ($25.28) due to the bullish nature of the chart. Although I already own some gold stocks, I think that Silver might outperform Gold in the short term. My target is around $28. I will hold a pretty loose stop at around $22. There is a possibility that the price can dip and a "handle" will form on the "cup". If that happens, I might add more if ~$22 holds with the expectation that it moves up through the ~$26 price resistance.
Current Portfolio
| Purchased | Symbol | Price |
| 4/13/2012 | SGMNF | $ 0.347 |
| 8/16/2012 | GDXJ | $ 20.520 |
| 8/16/2012 | GCC | $ 29.350 |
| 10/3/2012 | FSLR | $ 23.280 |
| 10/4/2012 | SIL | $ 25.280 |
The market looks decent if it can continue to move above September highs. However, it can turn on a dime. With regards to my 401k adjustments, I've decided to hold off on changes until early next year. Protect your capital and stay in the game. I wish everyone the best!
~JP
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