New Position - DNKN

Happy weekend everyone!
I took a new position in Dunkin Brands (DNKN) at around $30.04 just before the close on Friday.  Not just because I like donuts, but because of the strength in the last couple days after news of a stock sale by private investors.  The positive action tells me there is good demand for the stock. This is a relatively new stock and there is an expectation that earnings will grow significantly over the next year.

Technically, the stock is in a good position.  It bounce off its 50 day moving average twice over the past two days and rebounded nicely. $30 is historical support, which it broke out of in early March. There is a nice uptrend in place from mid December.  I'm looking for the stock to hold the 50 day ma and uptrend line as support.  A breach of the 50 day ma will stop me out. 

My initial target is around $32. If it breaks that level, $34-35 could be realized shortly after.

Enjoy the weekend!
~JP

 

Speculative Play Update - Sutter Gold Mining (SGMNF.PK)

Sutter Gold Mining had a significant day today. The price spiked up as high as 50 cents per share at one point and finished over 40 cents for around a 30% gain.  The volume might have been the highest in history (or close to it).  Hopefully, the volume can remain strong. Expect some consolidation...maybe around the 50 cent area before a continues move higher.  However, it is very possible for this stock to continue the momentum upwards or sell off to support levels.  First support appears to be 30 cents.

Volatility is very high with this one.  Today the price went from 30 cents to 50, back down to 33 or so, then back up to 40 cents.  If you're in, be prepared for some big swings.  Plus, the bid/ask spread is often pretty wide.  I'm prepared to sit on this stock for a while....hopefully, with a profit in the end.

We had about a week of rain last week. Not sure how that will impact the company's progress.

Anyhow, hope everyone is doing well with their investments. I'm not seeing as many good stock setups out there....stay patient and protect your capital.
~JP

Speculative Play - Sutter Gold Mining (SGMNF.PK)

As mentioned a couple posts ago, Sutter Gold Mine (SGMNF) had some good news last week about their gold drilling results. Today, the stock had a good run, up about 20% on some decent relative volume. Keep an eye on this over the next few days.  The stock could shoot up or fall back to support...or lower. I'd like to see increasing volume to support an increase in price. I still have my shares and will be holding longer term (3-9 months for now) until I see a change in the company's prospects.

Good luck!
JP

Watch List for Week of 3/18/2012

Here are a few stocks I'm watching this week...

HPQ - This stock is coming off oversold levels. My entry is around 24.60. I think it can run up to the 20 MA. I would have a tight stop on this one cause it could be a good short below 23.90 too.

SMSI -this one still looks good with a break over Friday's highs of 2.76. Stop would be a close below Friday's close of 2.65. Target is around 3.25.

XRX - Buy over 8.5 with a stop below 20 ma at 8.3. First target around 9-9.19.

My Guitar Studies:  Much like my continuing education in the stock market, I am a student of the classical guitar. I set a goal this year to learn a piece by Bach called Chaconne.  This will be a big challenge for me, as its been a while since I've dedicated myself to such a piece of music.  I'll update from time to time on progress.

Have a great week
JP

Speculative Play - Sutter Gold Mining (SGMNF.PK)

Today, I'm writing about a speculative stock that I think has some potential for making a big move in the future.  I normally do not hold stocks this cheap for more than a couple days due to the risk involved in the swings in stock price.  That said, I took a small position in a company called Sutter Gold Mining (SGMNF) back in August.  I got in at around 21 cents.  Since then, the stock dipped to as low as 14 cents (33% down from my purchase price), but has recently risen back to my buy price on some positive news.

A big factor for me in taking a chance with this company is because the mine location fairly close to where I live.  For whatever reason, this gives me a little confidence in the prospects that there is a lot of Gold still left in the California foothills. Maybe one day I'll go tour their site.

Last week, they had a nice press release stating the results of their recent gold survey from drilling.  You can read the release on their web site. www.suttergoldmining.com

From the press release, the initial results of the drilling sounds promising.  My expectation is that they continue to work toward mine production and processing gold later this year.  The weather here in Northern California has been very dry for winter, which means that they can continue to make good progress in making preparations for actual production.  In other words, I would guess that they are either on track or ahead of schedule in meeting their production deadlines.

Volume in the stock has also picked up since it was added to a higher level exchange (still over the counter).

Keep in mind that a 20 cent stock that moves down 2 cents lost 10%.  This can happen in a day for stocks priced this low.  The risk is very high with this one, so I'm counting on a series of positive press releases in the coming months that could enhance the price of the stock, giving me a chance to at least make double on my investment.

Have a good week!
~JP

Updates - 401k & RIC

This is a tough market to take new positions in.  I feel the risk/reward is not good enough to warrant any new long-term positions.  Therefore, I've made some significant adjustments to my 401k to position for a potential short-term down trend...per my prior blog posts.  Capital preservation is what I'm striving for until I see some sort of correction in the market in the amount of at least 4%.  If the markets come back to test the 20 or 50 day ma, I will begin to scale back into more aggressive positions.

Gold and Oil are specific areas that I would consider holding stocks in.  I've been watching $RIC to dip below $11, which occurred yesterday.  I took a position at $10.75 and thought it would bounce there.  Unfortunately, it kept diving down.  Instead of stopping out, I held expecting a bounce.  I'm currently down about 5%, but I think it could bounce from here.  Tomorrow could be an important day for deciding whether I stay in or cut my losses.  Fingers crossed....

Until I see a decent pull back in the markets, my position sizes will be smaller and my stops will be tighter.  I will also be very picky about my entries.

Good luck to all...

~JP